Dear Subscribers,
We enter the final week of January with two major catalysts on the horizon: The FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Big Tech earnings. Volatility is elevated, and the indices are searching for direction amidst geopolitical noise and rate-cut speculation.
While we are currently outpacing the S&P 500 YTD, three weeks of performance is just noise. We do not trade for monthly bragging rights; we invest for cycle-defining returns. The real verification of our edge is found in the long-term data.
1. PERFORMANCE VERIFICATION
Focus on the long-term Alpha.
Timeframe | TomALPHA | S&P 500 | Net Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
YTD 2026 (Current) | +1.81% | +1.07% | +0.74% |
1-Year (Trailing) | +80.15% | +16.57% | +63.58% |
Since Inception (Apr 2021) | +442.23% | +68.12% | +374.11% |
2. PORTFOLIO DETAIL
Sorted by Portfolio Weight. Target Price based on 2027 DCF models.
Ticker | Weight | Current | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
$PYPL | 13% | $56.62 | $100.0 | +77% |
$NU | 9% | $18.04 | $24.00 | +33% |
$EEFT | 9% | $74.18 | $165.0 | +122% |
$S | 9% | $14.29 | $28.00 | +96% |
$ZAL | 8% | €23.61 | €34.00 | +44% |
$EVO | 6% | 589 SEK | 930 SEK | +58% |
$NICE | 6% | $114.4 | $195.0 | +70% |
$WIX | 6% | $88.48 | $170.0 | +92% |
$WIZZ | 6% | £13.16 | £18.90 | +44% |
$BABA | 6% | $157.8 | $215.0 | +36% |
$TUI | 6% | €9.14 | €15.00 | +64% |
$KSPI | 5% | $78.75 | $133.0 | +69% |
$JD | 5% | $29.84 | $46.00 | +54% |
$BYDDY | 5% | HK$98.50 | HK$145.0 | +47% |
$BOSS | 2% | €34.32 | €48.00 | +40% |
Hedge Update: We hold Long Puts on SPY as portfolio insurance against tail risk.
3. THE WATCHLIST
Strategy Note: Hitting a "Buy Zone" signals value, not an automatic market order. Actual execution depends on available liquidity, portfolio concentration, and market sentiment. We do not force trades; we wait for the perfect alignment.
Assets we are tracking.
Ticker | Buy Zone | Current | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
$DELL | $120.00 | $115.43 | $176.0 | +52% |
$GRAB* | $5.08 | $4.58 | $6.55 | +43% |
Xiaomi | HK$38.00 | HK$35.22 | HK$60.00 | +70% |
$ADBE | $299.00 | $301.07 | $470.0 | +56% |
$TTD | $536.00 | $536.55 | $543.0 | +1% |
$MELI | $2,000 | $2,137 | $2,810 | +31% |
$META | $600.00 | $658.76 | $800.0 | +21% |
$UBER | $70.00 | $82.31 | $100.0 | +21% |
$CVS | $70.00 | $83.01 | $90.00 | +8% |
*) Sold PUT $5 (Exp 20.2)
We remain patient. The market rewards clarity, not activity. We monitor these levels daily and strike only when the asymmetry is overwhelmingly in our favor.
Have a nice week.
Tom