Archive

Dive into a collection of past posts and rediscover timeless content.

Earnings review

Costco Q1 FY2026 Earnings: 92% Renewal Rates Meet First Decline in Years

Dec 12, 2025

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19 min read

Costco Q1 FY2026 Earnings: 92% Renewal Rates Meet First Decline in Years

Stock flat at $882 despite EPS beat as -10bps renewal drop, missing operating leverage, and $72M tax benefit signal premium valuation under pressure

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

Broadcom Q4 FY2025 Earnings: $73B AI Backlog Meets Margin Compression Reality

Dec 12, 2025

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13 min read

Broadcom Q4 FY2025 Earnings: $73B AI Backlog Meets Margin Compression Reality

AI revenue doubling masks deeper problems: margin compression, VMware slowdown, and $2.1B accounting gain inflating profits.

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

Oracle Q2 Earnings: $50B AI Bet Crashes Into -$10B Cash Flow Reality

Dec 12, 2025

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7 min read

Oracle Q2 Earnings: $50B AI Bet Crashes Into -$10B Cash Flow Reality

Stock plunges 11% as free cash flow disaster overshadows "earnings beat" inflated by $2.7B one-time gain. Is Oracle building the AI future or digging a debt grave?

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Valuation Case for 2026

Dec 11, 2025

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20 min read

NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Valuation Case for 2026

A comprehensive equity research analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock with fair price valuation. Examining the AI infrastructure thesis, CUDA competitive moat, $567B market opportunity, and detailed valuation for 2026.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

NICE Stock Deep Dive: The Market is Wrong (12x vs 48x Valuation)

Dec 8, 2025

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2 min read

NICE Stock Deep Dive: The Market is Wrong (12x vs 48x Valuation)

A comprehensive equity research analysis breaking down the 75% discount, AI moat, and my $185 price target.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

REPORT: WIX ($96) → Target $170. The Math the Market Misses.

Dec 4, 2025

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2 min read

REPORT: WIX ($96) → Target $170. The Math the Market Misses.

Undervalued Transformation. 9.0x EV/FCF vs. Peer Median 14.2x. Upside +76.5%.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

My Highest Conviction Trade: Why $NU Is 10% of My Portfolio

Nov 24, 2025

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2 min read

My Highest Conviction Trade: Why $NU Is 10% of My Portfolio

Why Wall Street is mispricing a tech monopoly as a legacy bank. Download the full valuation model.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

[DEEP-DIVE] WIZZ: +26% profit with 20% fewer planes

Nov 18, 2025

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4 min read

[DEEP-DIVE] WIZZ: +26% profit with 20% fewer planes

Wall Street missed it. €360M recovery priced at zero. £10.68 → £18 (68% upside, 12-18mo)

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

BYD Analysis: +64% Upside on China's EV Leader

Nov 13, 2025

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3 min read

BYD Analysis: +64% Upside on China's EV Leader

Q3 was a trough, not a trend. Margins recovering, valuation absurd.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Nov 7, 2025

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3 min read

AMD: The AI Challenger

OpenAI's $100B Bet Validates AMD as Credible NVIDIA Alternative

Tom Alpha Trades

Archive

Dive into a collection of past posts and rediscover timeless content.

Costco Q1 FY2026 Earnings: 92% Renewal Rates Meet First Decline in Years

Broadcom Q4 FY2025 Earnings: $73B AI Backlog Meets Margin Compression Reality

Oracle Q2 Earnings: $50B AI Bet Crashes Into -$10B Cash Flow Reality

NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Valuation Case for 2026

NICE Stock Deep Dive: The Market is Wrong (12x vs 48x Valuation)

REPORT: WIX ($96) → Target $170. The Math the Market Misses.

My Highest Conviction Trade: Why $NU Is 10% of My Portfolio

[DEEP-DIVE] WIZZ: +26% profit with 20% fewer planes

BYD Analysis: +64% Upside on China's EV Leader

AMD: The AI Challenger

TomALPHA Trades