Investors are still paralysed by "Pandemic PTSD." They price TUI as a low-margin tour operator. They are missing the structural pivot:
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80% of profits now come from "Assets" (Hotels, Cruises, Tours).
Only 20% comes from the Airline/Markets.
The balance sheet is repaired (0.6x Leverage), yet the stock trades at 3.8x EBITDA. Peers trade at 11x. This is the definition of deep value.
INSIDE THE INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGY NOTE:
►The "Hidden Asset" Valuation: We own 463 Hotels and 18 Ships. We are buying these assets for 50 cents on the dollar.
►The Arbitrage: Carnival trades at 8.5x. Hyatt trades at 11x. TUI trades at ~3.8x. The re-rating to €13.50 is mathematical.
►The Catalyst: Net Debt/EBITDA has collapsed to 0.6x. The "Bankruptcy Discount" must end.
Best regards,
Tom