Tom Alpha Trades

+441% since April 2021 (SPY +67%). Real IBKR trades. 15yr Wall Street analyst. Full transparency.

Deep dives

Feb 19, 2026

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1 min read

SOFI: From $19 to $49? (Deep Dive)

The math behind the +150% upside. (No hopium, just data).

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

PAYPAL ($PYPL): THE HARD RESET. WHY I AM BUYING THE -20% DROP.

Feb 4, 2026

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2 min read

PAYPAL ($PYPL): THE HARD RESET. WHY I AM BUYING THE -20% DROP.

The market hated the "Transition Year" guidance. The stock crashed. But at ~8x Earnings with a $6B buyback, the downside is mathematically capped.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

WIZZ AIR ($WIZZ): INVESTMENT THESIS UPDATE & Q3 FY26 REVIEW

Jan 30, 2026

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2 min read

WIZZ AIR ($WIZZ): INVESTMENT THESIS UPDATE & Q3 FY26 REVIEW

The Q3 data confirms the turnaround is executing. The operational floor is set. Here is why I remain fully allocated (5% position) targeting the £29.00 re-rating.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Jan 27, 2026

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2 min read

TUI AG ($TUI1): BUY THE HOTEL EMPIRE, GET THE AIRLINE FOR FREE

The market sees a distressed airline. The data shows a cash-rich Hotel & Cruise monopoly trading at distressed valuations.

Tom Alpha Trades

Portfolio performance

Jan 26, 2026

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3 min read

Weekly Portfolio Update: January 26

Alpha vs. Noise: While the market stalls, we are up +80% (1Y). Here is how we are positioned for FOMC.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

GRAB: THE "UBER OF ASIA" ARBITRAGE (INSTITUTIONAL NOTE)

Jan 22, 2026

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2 min read

GRAB: THE "UBER OF ASIA" ARBITRAGE (INSTITUTIONAL NOTE)

Wall Street sees a cash incinerator. We see a $5.3BN cash fortress and a profit engine ready to print. Here is the math behind the +46% upside.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

ZALANDO DEEP-DIVE: THE +35% UPSIDE LOGISTICS UTILITY TRADE

Jan 16, 2026

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2 min read

ZALANDO DEEP-DIVE: THE +35% UPSIDE LOGISTICS UTILITY TRADE

The "AWS of Fashion" thesis is live. Q3 2025 data confirms structural arbitrage: B2B margins nearly doubled while the market wasn't looking.

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

BANKING AUDIT: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff (Q4 2025)

Jan 14, 2026

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2 min read

BANKING AUDIT: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff (Q4 2025)

Why $BAC is our Top Pick and why you should avoid the "cheap" trap of $C.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Asymmetric Bet: Why $157 is the Floor for Alibaba

Jan 12, 2026

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2 min read

Asymmetric Bet: Why $157 is the Floor for Alibaba

Forget "Value Trap." This is China's AWS in disguise. Download the full institutional deep-dive.

Tom Alpha Trades

Portfolio performance

Jan 12, 2026

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3 min read

Portfolio update - January 12, 2026

TomALPHA Portfolio Snapshot & Strategic Watchlist

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Why Wall St is valuing "S" at $15, but our math says $24.

Jan 8, 2026

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2 min read

Why Wall St is valuing "S" at $15, but our math says $24.

The market sees a decelerating endpoint vendor. We see a profitable AI platform trading at a 67% discount.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Jan 7, 2026

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2 min read

PayPal (PYPL): Why the Market is Ignoring 69% Upside

Wall Street sees a dying bank. The math reveals a tech giant waking up.

Tom Alpha Trades

Portfolio performance

TomALPHA Annual Report: 2025 Review & 2026 Playbook 📊

Jan 5, 2026

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4 min read

TomALPHA Annual Report: 2025 Review & 2026 Playbook 📊

Real Money. Real P&L. Outperforming the S&P 500 by 5x.

Tom Alpha Trades

Portfolio performance

Dec 22, 2025

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4 min read

Portfolio Update | Dec 22, 2025

+442% vs SPY's +68% since 2021. 16 positions, full transparency, every target price.

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

FedEx Q2 FY2026 Earnings: 20% EPS Beat Masked by Freight Collapse

Dec 19, 2025

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11 min read

FedEx Q2 FY2026 Earnings: 20% EPS Beat Masked by Freight Collapse

DRIVE transformation delivers $540M in quarterly savings and record peak volumes, but Freight segment's -71% profit crash and $1B trade headwinds steal the spotlight. Stock flat despite massive beat.

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

Nike Q2 FY2026 Earnings: The $1.5B Tariff Bomb Wall Street Underestimated

Dec 19, 2025

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11 min read

Nike Q2 FY2026 Earnings: The $1.5B Tariff Bomb Wall Street Underestimated

EPS misses by 16% as tariff costs jump 50% in 90 days. North America recovers (+9%), but China crisis deepens (-17%). Stock drops 10% after hours.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Micron (MU): The Market Sees a Cycle Peak. I See a Path to $475.

Dec 18, 2025

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2 min read

Micron (MU): The Market Sees a Cycle Peak. I See a Path to $475.

Why Wall Street is mispricing the AI infrastructure trade and the structural case for an 85% upside.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive: Price Target & Outlook 2026

Dec 15, 2025

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10 min read

Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive: Price Target & Outlook 2026

114% Rule of 40, 63% revenue growth, $6.4B cash — but is PLTR the best business you shouldn't buy?

Tom Alpha Trades

Portfolio performance

Dec 15, 2025

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3 min read

Portfolio Update | Dec 15, 2025

+442% vs SPY's +68% since 2021. 16 positions, full transparency, every target price.

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

Costco Q1 FY2026 Earnings: 92% Renewal Rates Meet First Decline in Years

Dec 12, 2025

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19 min read

Costco Q1 FY2026 Earnings: 92% Renewal Rates Meet First Decline in Years

Stock flat at $882 despite EPS beat as -10bps renewal drop, missing operating leverage, and $72M tax benefit signal premium valuation under pressure

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

Broadcom Q4 FY2025 Earnings: $73B AI Backlog Meets Margin Compression Reality

Dec 12, 2025

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13 min read

Broadcom Q4 FY2025 Earnings: $73B AI Backlog Meets Margin Compression Reality

AI revenue doubling masks deeper problems: margin compression, VMware slowdown, and $2.1B accounting gain inflating profits.

Tom Alpha Trades

Earnings review

Oracle Q2 Earnings: $50B AI Bet Crashes Into -$10B Cash Flow Reality

Dec 12, 2025

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7 min read

Oracle Q2 Earnings: $50B AI Bet Crashes Into -$10B Cash Flow Reality

Stock plunges 11% as free cash flow disaster overshadows "earnings beat" inflated by $2.7B one-time gain. Is Oracle building the AI future or digging a debt grave?

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Valuation Case for 2026

Dec 11, 2025

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20 min read

NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Valuation Case for 2026

A comprehensive equity research analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock with fair price valuation. Examining the AI infrastructure thesis, CUDA competitive moat, $567B market opportunity, and detailed valuation for 2026.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

NICE Stock Deep Dive: The Market is Wrong (12x vs 48x Valuation)

Dec 8, 2025

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2 min read

NICE Stock Deep Dive: The Market is Wrong (12x vs 48x Valuation)

A comprehensive equity research analysis breaking down the 75% discount, AI moat, and my $185 price target.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

REPORT: WIX ($96) → Target $170. The Math the Market Misses.

Dec 4, 2025

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2 min read

REPORT: WIX ($96) → Target $170. The Math the Market Misses.

Undervalued Transformation. 9.0x EV/FCF vs. Peer Median 14.2x. Upside +76.5%.

Tom Alpha Trades