We entered Wizz Air with a contrarian view: The market was pricing in a bankruptcy scenario that simply didn't exist.
Yesterday's Q3 results were the validation event we were waiting for. Passenger numbers (17.5m) held up despite the engine groundings, and cost discipline remains best-in-class.
The Verdict: The trade has been de-risked. The "Engine Crisis" is now a managed variable, not an existential threat. The path to +100% upside is clear.
I have updated my institutional model to reflect the Q3 actuals. The asymmetry has only improved.
INSIDE THE UPDATED STRATEGY NOTE:
Q3 Data Digest: A breakdown of the 17.5m passenger figure and what it signals for Summer 2026 demand.
The Valuation Gap: Why the stock is still trading at distress multiples despite stabilizing fundamentals.
Updated Price Targets: We increased our Base Case to £22.00 (+55%) and Bull Case to £29.00 (+100%).
