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Deep dives

Nu Holdings (NU): A 33% ROE Juggernaut on Sale. Why Wall Street's Panic is Your $20.50 Opportunity.

The market has overly discounted near-term operational investments, overshadowing a record 33% ROE. Unpacking the math behind our $20.50 Base Case Fair Value.

Tom Alpha Trades

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Mar 2, 2026

Newest posts

Deep dives

Feb 19, 2026

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1 min read

SOFI: From $19 to $49? (Deep Dive)

The math behind the +150% upside. (No hopium, just data).

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

PAYPAL ($PYPL): THE HARD RESET. WHY I AM BUYING THE -20% DROP.

Feb 4, 2026

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2 min read

PAYPAL ($PYPL): THE HARD RESET. WHY I AM BUYING THE -20% DROP.

The market hated the "Transition Year" guidance. The stock crashed. But at ~8x Earnings with a $6B buyback, the downside is mathematically capped.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

WIZZ AIR ($WIZZ): INVESTMENT THESIS UPDATE & Q3 FY26 REVIEW

Jan 30, 2026

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2 min read

WIZZ AIR ($WIZZ): INVESTMENT THESIS UPDATE & Q3 FY26 REVIEW

The Q3 data confirms the turnaround is executing. The operational floor is set. Here is why I remain fully allocated (5% position) targeting the £29.00 re-rating.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

Jan 27, 2026

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2 min read

TUI AG ($TUI1): BUY THE HOTEL EMPIRE, GET THE AIRLINE FOR FREE

The market sees a distressed airline. The data shows a cash-rich Hotel & Cruise monopoly trading at distressed valuations.

Tom Alpha Trades

Portfolio performance

Jan 26, 2026

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3 min read

Weekly Portfolio Update: January 26

Alpha vs. Noise: While the market stalls, we are up +80% (1Y). Here is how we are positioned for FOMC.

Tom Alpha Trades

Deep dives

GRAB: THE "UBER OF ASIA" ARBITRAGE (INSTITUTIONAL NOTE)

Jan 22, 2026

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2 min read

GRAB: THE "UBER OF ASIA" ARBITRAGE (INSTITUTIONAL NOTE)

Wall Street sees a cash incinerator. We see a $5.3BN cash fortress and a profit engine ready to print. Here is the math behind the +46% upside.

Tom Alpha Trades